It’s no secret that Americans are worried about the recession.
With the S&P 500 briefly reading in the beer market area on Friday, consumers are wondering if this year’s stock market downturn will spread to the larger economy, affecting their livelihoods.
About 81% of U.S. adults now believe that inflation has remained close to a four-decade high and that the Dow Jones will continue to decline.
And a growing list of top economists and Wall Street investors agree. Take a look at who is predicting impending economic collapse and why.
Carl Icon, with a net worth of about $ 16 billion, was one of the first Wall Street Titans to warn of the increased risk of a recession.
The founder and chairman of the investment group Icahn Enterprises said in a March interview with CNBC that the “recession or worse” could be the card for the US economy because inflation eats away at consumers’ paychecks.
Icahn, an ever-critical critic of corporate America, took the opportunity to blast U.S. executives, calling them unprepared for the impending economic storm.
“You have some very fine companies, some very fine CEOs, but a lot more that I don’t think will need to be done,” he argued.
Jamie Damon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned in April that the recession was likely to escalate significantly, arguing that the ongoing war in Ukraine, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s trivial monetary policy could create serious economic woes for average Americans.
Then, in May, the CEO went a step further, arguing that the Federal Reserve has only a 33% chance of securing a “soft landing” for the US economy – where the inflationary recession is dealt with without provocation.
In a May 4 interview with Bloomberg, Dimon said there was a 66% chance that the U.S. would either have a mild recession or something worse.
Elon Musk is more pessimistic than most economists and Wall Street experts. The Tesla CEO said in a Twitter post on May 16 that the United States is probably already in a recession that will last anywhere from 12 to 18 months.
According to Musk, the technical definition of recession has been the decline in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and in the first quarter, US GDP has shrunk by 1.4%. So when GDP data is released in June, economists will see very well that the United States is already in recession.
Jeremy Grantham has been warning for years about the impending blow to stocks. In fact, Grantham Mayo van Otterlu, founder of the investment company, said in 2010 that he thought the Federal Reserve was creating a bubble in the stock market. He argued that stocks could “crack” in 2011 or 2012, but since then, the S&P 500 has gone on to become one of the most impressive runs in history.
Still, Grantham clung to his gun, arguing against the Fed’s almost zero interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) or the Fed’s dual policy of raising money to finance central bank mortgage-backed securities and buying government bonds. A “super bubble” that will eventually collapse.
In May, investor legends argued that the Fed would not be able to offset losses from its sustainable monetary policy by raising interest rates again this year. Instead, the central bank is pushing the United States into recession, he argues, and the fate of the economy could depend on the housing market.
“2000 shows that you can skate through a stock market event, but Japan and 2008 show that you can’t skate through the housing crisis,” he told Bloomberg in a May 5 interview.
On April 5, Leon Cooperman added his name to the growing list of billionaire investors predicting a US recession.
The CEO of investment firm Omega Advisors argued that the Federal Reserve was slow to act to calm rising inflation. As a result, the central bank will be forced to raise rates aggressively to ensure price stability, leading to a recession.
“I think the Fed has completely missed it, and I think we have a lot of wood to cut,” Cooperman told CNBC on Tuesday. “I think oil prices or the Fed will push us into recession in 2023. It’s not written in stone, but it’s my guess.”
Deutsche Bank became the first major investment bank in April, arguing that the United States would be in recession by 2023.
“Two shocks in recent months, the war in Ukraine and higher inflation in the US and Europe, have forced us to significantly lower our global growth forecasts,” wrote a Deutsche Bank team led by economist David Fokarts-Landau. “We are now projecting a recession in the United States … in the next two years.”
Investment bank economists doubled their forecasts in May, arguing that the United States would face a “major” recession by the end of next year as the Fed continues to tackle inflation as interest rates rise.
“Given the macro starting point, my view is that the burden of proof should be on why this boom / bust cycle will not end in recession,” Folkerts-Landau wrote in an April 26 note.
Charles Scarf, CEO of Wells Fargo, says the United States is heading for a recession this week.
“I think it’s going to be hard to avoid some kind of recession,” Scharf said The Wall Street Journal The future of the Everything Festival on Tuesday.
Sharf argues, however, that strong business activity and consumer demand will help provide a “cushion” for the U.S. economy, which could shorten any potential recession.
Scott Maynard, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, said this week that investors should be prepared for the “summer pain” that “looks a lot like the fall of the Internet bubble.”
In an interview with Dr. Marketwatch On Wednesday, the CIO said its bearish outlook was based on the end of the free money era and the so-called “Fed Put” – or the idea that the Fed would come to the rescue of the market in case of significant losses to the stock market.
“There is no market, and I think we are all waking up to that truth now,” he said.
Minerals Taken to Twitter After the interview, he hoped the United States could fall into recession “early in the second half of next year.”
In a March 29 Bloomberg op-ed, former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley argued that the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates at an unstable pace to tackle inflation, despite declining growth expectations for the US economy.
This makes it almost impossible for the central bank to secure a “soft landing” and consequently increase unemployment, he said.
“The implementation of the Fed’s framework has left inflation behind the curve. This, in turn, made a difficult landing virtually inevitable, “Doodley wrote.
Even the Federal National Mortgage Association, aka Fannie Mae, has argued that the United States is heading for a recession in the second half of next year.
However, the mortgage giant noted that a strong housing market would help reduce the severity of the economic downturn.
A “moderate recession” is the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy, Fannie May claims, as mortgage rates rise and the housing market cools, but an all-out collapse like what happened in 2008 is unlikely due to historically low inventory and relatively strong. Demand
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com