Pune: Statistical models used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have failed to predict three droughts in India in the last decade. Although statistical models will still be used for rain forecasting, the Ministry of Earth Sciences is emphasizing dynamic models.
M Rajiban of the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory said, “The failure to predict the 2009 drought has raised serious issues. On the other hand, sophisticated twin marine atmospheric models have improved their ability to predict inter-year variability. The Indian summer monsoon season.”
He was speaking at the Indian Institute of Climate Change (IITM), Pune’s Golden Jubilee Conference on ‘Opportunities and Challenges of Rainfall Forecasting in Changing Climate’. Since 2011, IITM has used twin models for monsoon forecasting.
Data from all parts of the world is needed for better weather forecasting. “In every part of the world, farmers are saying that climate is not what it used to be. So, traditional knowledge is failing. To better predict the weather, we need observation from all countries. We need more supercomputers. Capacity. How to translate scientific progress into concrete applications. We need to know about that, “said Michel Jarwood, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization.