Will the stock market go down 20% or 48% from the top? Here’s the key factor, he said

“Is the economy under control or out of control? That’s the decent thing to do, and it should end there. ”

Clearly, the next argument predominates – again – after indicating the worst day in two years on Wall Street and more pain for Thursday. Among the Glumsters, Scott Maynard of Guggenheim warned of a possible “summer pain” – 45% from the top for the S&P 500 and 75% below the Nasdaq.

Read: Markets haven’t worked that way since 1981 – and here’s how it happened

Undoubtedly, Wall Street has lowered its stock forecasts in recent months. On the optimistic side, Marco Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s all-time top equity strategist, told Bloomberg (in an interview before Wednesday) that equities “will come out of this hole” because of the risk of recession and stagflation.

Indeed, ours Call of the day Strategists from Evercore say that the recession is a predetermined conclusion that markets are spiraling in this direction. They also say that panic-stricken, leveraged retail investors who are behind the sale should calm down soon because professionals are not afraid (yet).

“On Thursday, we will get an idea of ​​whether market action is part of a volatile bottling process, our base case, or the fall could materially reduce SPX 3,854, starting a capitulation trade,” notes the Everco team led by Julian Emanuel.

Presenting their views on what is happening with the sale, Emanuel and his team argue that the markets were caught in the “wrong direction” of the Fed, rallied despite Chair Jerome Powell’s scathing remarks, then echoed what happened and returned it a day later. Fed meeting in early May.

The key issue here is not whether the markets understand the Fed’s intentions, but whether “a recession in 2022-23 could be avoided by dealing with a generationally higher inflation, whose only experience was tightening the Volker Fed in the past (1971-81) where multiple recessions were inevitable.”

Emanuel and the team don’t think the Fed needs a bearish trend, but say stocks are behaving like that.

“The difference is critical. The market for the last three non-bear bears has declined by an average of -21.3% – 2018 below a ‘V’, 2011 and 1998 a ‘W’ – although no one has registered as an ‘official’ beer. The last three recession beer markets (2020, 2007-09, 2000-02) have declined by an average of -47.9%, ”says Evercore.

Panicked investors, especially retailers (who have been blamed before), should calm down soon, it says.

Read: A large portion of young investors say they are not afraid to buy dips in search of long-term returns – but there is a big caveat.

“We continue to meet the expectations of the people (who have strong job prospects and
Balance sheets are healthy (its margin yields the opposite signal / misleading feeling of debt and misdirection of defensive professional position, stabilizing stocks in the days ahead), ”the strategists say.

Buzz

Cisco Systems CSCO
China’s COVID-19 lockdown is set to open in its weakest state by the end of 2020, disrupting its outlook.

After Walmart WMT
And target TGT
Downbeat results this week, Kohl’s KSS
Weak earnings and forecasts have been cut a day after the two executives left. Bed Bath and Beyond BBBY
The stock is down weak guidance since late Wednesday.

Read: Most of Wednesday’s worst-performing stocks come from a sector that investors are really worried about.

Once upon a time a top-rated hedge fund, Melvin Capital, was closing its doors.

Thursday’s economic data slate includes the latest weekly unemployment claims report, as well as the Philadelphia Fed Production Report, existing home sales and leading indicators.

A case of monkey pox has been identified in Massachusetts, with authorities investigating links to a rare disease caused by an outbreak in Europe.

Market

Stock Futures ES00

NQ00
Dow Futures is pointing to a loss of about 1% with YM00
More than 400 points, and bond yield BX: TMUBMUSD10Y

BX: TMUBMUSD02Y
tumbling oil CL00

BRN00
With the dollar, and the whole crypto space BTCUSDO is declining.
Gold GC00
A bright place.

Ticker

These were the most searched tickers on Marketwatch until 7am Eastern time:

Ticker

Security name

TSLA

Tesla

GME

Gamestop

AMC

AMC Entertainment

AAPL

Apples

NIO

NIO

AMZN

Amazon

TWTR

Twitter

Kohler

BBIG

Vinco Ventures

AMD

Small instruments of the future

List

Mott Capital Markets founder Michael Kramer is a big name for Thursday – Apple is eyeing APL
– and advises investors to do the same.

“If this stock breaks the support at $ 139, it will probably light up the whole stock market. This would create a low for Apple, breach support and set a drop to around $ 123. I don’t see how the whole market doesn’t follow Apple at that time, “said Kramer.

Mutt Capital

Random reading

COVID-19 relief money from a rural Japanese town was accidentally sent to a man who gambled.

Former President George W. Bush created a rather large Freudian slip.

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